There has been no significant development for several years with renewable energy, electric vehicles and self-driving. The amount of wind and solar power being produced has been flat for years. Why are electric vehicles going to take off in two years while they are doing nothing now?
The reason for the stall is because the claimed value of the technology is nothing but fantasy. It never was based on scientific or technological advancements but the need to promote a cause.
Behind the scene is a preposterous claim by the U.S. Energy Information Administration that electric motors get 96% efficiency, and laws require motors to do that. There are laws of physics which do not allow electric motor efficiency to get above 40%, as engineers have had to deal with for more than a century in coping with the 60% or more heat. This bit of error and stupidity may be one of the driving forces behind the expectation of electrifying the transportation system with 100% renewable energy.
The laws of physics start with heat, kinetic energy and electrical energy. Heat is randomized atomic motion. Kinetic energy is linearized motion of any mass including atoms. Electrical energy is a force created by linearized electrons as distinguished from orbital electrons which spin around atoms.
Everything electrical energy does results in atomic motion being more randomized instead of less, which means heat increases. The question is whether the amount of heat is 4% or 60% in electric motors creating linear motion.
One of Newton's laws is that for every force there is an equal and opposite force. That means the linearized force which turns the motor is opposed by a linear force acting upon the electrons which carry the electrical energy. The linear force acting upon electrons produces a force acting upon the metal which contain the electrons. This is why a motor must be anchored in place wellit turns in the opposite direction as the output shaft. Electrons strike metal atoms (usually copper wire) to produce the opposite force. Electrons striking copper atoms will produce more random motion than linear motion.
To produce linear motion, an electron would have to strike a metal atom near the center. But the atoms are vibrating constantly due to their heat which is always above absolute zero temperature. The random motion of the metal atoms will result in electrons striking them at all points, not just their centers. All impact directions other than direct center create random motion, which is heat. To claim 96% of the impacts of electrons upon randomly moving metal atoms will be direct-center impacts is absurd.
The claim that 100% renewable energy as solar and wind can be achieved is just as absurd. Solar energy can only be produced during daylight hours. Is wind energy going to make up the difference at night? Then why not all wind energy, which it will have to be during the nights? Promoters of the cause cannot say, maybe 99%, let alone 15%, because they would need a rational explanation, which they cannot produce. They have to absolutize at 100% to avoid an analysis which they cannot produce. Rationalizers claim some of the "renewable energy" will be other sources including wood, garbage and hydro-electric. But those sources are so limited that they are not significant when converting all energy to electricity.
The primary fact on the ground is that no one can get past 15% renewable energy as solar and wind because of the disruptive influences upon the electrical infrastructure. Germany nearly bankrupted its economy with solar and wind and couldn't get past 15%. The public pays 40-50¢ per kwh for that set of conditions, while coal costs 5-6¢ per kwh when not encumbered with renewables.
Claimed 96% Efficiency
(January 12, 2018)