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Gary Novak
The Cause of Ice Ages and Present Climate |
Indirect measurements are not enough. They go all the way back to the origins of science. But interpretations and human input are added, when measurements are not direct. One of the requirements of real science is to eliminate the human input in determining the results. Even logical corrections are not valid in science, because the logic is not always reliable, as was the case in adjusting temperature measurements to show an increase where collected data showed none. If collected data needs adjusting, it needs to be collected in a better way rather than being adjusted through human logic. The foundational publication upon which the entire "science" of global warming is based is the use of radiative transfer equations (RTEs) to claim 3.7 watts per square meter (W/m˛) will result in 1°C temperature increase upon doubling CO2 in the atmosphere. There are no measurements involved in the RTEs. They are based upon the Stefan-Boltzmann constant which shows about 40 times too much radiation being emitted from matter at normal temperatures. Combined with and built upon the RTEs is endless modeling, which is nothing resembling legitimate science. Modeling is guess work tailored to rationalize motives. There is no description of methodology with modeling, which allows anyone to get whatever result they want. Society is making a big mistake in allowing such fraud to replace science. The underlying assumption is that scientists are making the best guess possible with global warming. If science is nothing but guess work, serving the purposes of religion and worship instead of objective measurements, the charlatanism of old would be an improvement. Such a standard institutionalizes the corruptions of power mongers and prevents rational persons from producing objective reality.
Global warming is not published as science is published. The purpose of scientific publications is to allow other persons to evaluate what was done and reproduce or build upon the results. None of that is possible in the area of global warming. The publications are nothing but news blurbs without the slightest indication of methodology.
The Kiehl-Trenberth model, published in 1997, shows that 79% of the energy leaving the surface of the earth is in the form of radiation. The IPCC documents describe the Kiehl-Trenberth model, which indicates that it could be a reference for the amount of radiation leaving the surface of the earth. What might have been used before 1997 is unimaginable. A major problem with the Kiehl-Trenberth model is that nothing exposed to the air gives off anything close to 79% radiation. White hot metals would give off about 30 to 70 percent radiation when exposed to the atmosphere. So why did the Kiehl-Trenberth model show 79% radiation? Because the Stefan-Boltzmann constant was applied to the result. The Stefan-Boltzmann constant shows about 20 times too much radiation at normal temperatures. There was no way to get the numbers to add up when using the Stefan-Boltzmann constant without showing something close to 79% radiation. Some time later, the NASA energy budget was produced showing 41% radiation, which is still in the area of white hot metals under atmospheric conditions. Whether anyone ever used the 41% figure in published global warming effects is nowhere indicated. At the claimed average, global, near surface temperature of 15°C (59°F), the ground would give off about 1-3% of its energy as radiation, while the oceans would give off somewhat less. It means climatologists are assuming at least 40 times too much radiation. The amount of radiation determines the amount of heat that can be produced by molecules such as carbon dioxide which absorb the radiation. These discrepancies cannot be criticized or discussed in science, because there is no indication in the publications of the amount of radiation entering the calculations. There is no standard amount that should be expected, when the models vary from 41% to 79%. This problem is true of every relevant point in the publications of global warming science. Every bit of information that would be needed to evaluate, criticize, reproduce or build upon the published claims is concealed. Science does not exist at that standard. Science is not a revelation process. The purpose of science is to measure the basic laws of nature and show in a verifiable manner how it was done, so any question about the results can be eliminated. Replacing errors with truth and knowledge is the purpose. The fake publications on global warming do not do that. |