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 Fudge Factor Replaces Science 
 
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Gary Novak

Global Warming Home

Alphabetical Page List

Temperature Effects

Equilibrium in Atmosphere

Radiative Transfer Equations

Fudge Factor

Saturation

Greenhouse Gas Mathematics

Temperature Measurements

Recent History

Stefan-Boltzmann

Firing Scientists

Acid in the Oceans

Heinz Hug Measurement

Methane is Weaker

Changing Weather

Oceans not Rising

Heating 2,500C

Natural Log Curve

Published not as Science

Fake Ice Core Data

Ice Melt Fraud

Future Ice Age

"Delicate Balance" Fraud

Heat-Trapping Gases

Back Radiation is Absurd

The Cause of Ice Ages and Present Climate

Climategate

Second Climategate

Contrivance

The Disputed Area

Zone of Emission Fraud

Errors in Claims

IPCC Propaganda

The 30% Fraud

The 41% Fraud

The Water Vapor Fraud

Humidity Fraud

River, not Window

Hockey Stick Graph

CO2 Charlatanism

A Fake Mechanism

220x10-12 °C

Global Dynamic

Long Wave Infrared Radiation

What about Argo

Forcing Error

The Concept of Distance

Harry_Read_Me Files

Meaning of Hacked Files

Precipitation

A Look at Modeling 

Conduction Heat


                

 
Changing Weather

 
Weather is primarily controlled by the oceans. The first thing this should mean is that greenhouse gases could not have much influence on weather, even if they were creating global warming.

Oceans have a large influence on air temperature, since the surface of the earth is seventy percent oceans. Air sweeping over such expanse acquires a similar temperature. But even more important is humidity. The temperature of the ocean surface determines the amount of water vapor that enters the air moving over it. When the ocean surface warms up, a lot of precipitation results, as El Ninos show. And as the ocean surface cools down, the air gets dry, as La Ninas show.

Since air temperature has no significant ability to influence ocean temperature (due to lack of heat capacity in air and huge heat capacity in oceans), the large-scale, average, air temperature increase which greenhouse gases are supposed to create would have no significant influence on weather.

Yet all weather effects are attributed to global warming. Often, scientists will say that severe weather events, such as hurricanes or tornados, were not caused by global warming, but to no avail, as journalists and nonscientists totally swamp scientific statements with their propaganda.

Weather Shift in 1980

There was a major weather shift in North America starting around 1980. It was caused by warming of the surface of the Pacific Ocean. In the northern plains, where weather is seldom influenced by Gulf of Mexico air which sweeps northward over Iowa and Illinois, the result was that the corn belt moved about a hundred miles further west due to increased precipitation. The warmer Pacific Ocean air had much more moisture in it. One of the results was warmer winters and cooler summers due to increased cloudiness.

Around 1998, the surface of the Pacific Ocean started to cool back down, and precipitation on the northern plains returned to the normal pattern of sporadic dryness and storms with cold winters and hot summers.

Looking Out the Window

A lot of nonscientists think they can look out the window and see global warming. This is probably why society cannot be told that the science of global warming is not there. They can see it out their window.

Extreme incompetence in recent science promotes the problem. Scientists claim that another ice age will be caused by some mysterious cooling effect resulting in snow not melting and reflecting away sunlight creating more cooling. It's nauseating stupidity.

There is a law of physics which says energy cannot be created or destroyed. Seventh graders are supposed to learn this. Where then is the cool-down supposed to come from before snow accumulates to reflect away sunlight? Scientists have the cooling occurring before the snow accumulates to reflect away sunlight.

There are significant changes in solar intensity, which apparently caused the "little ice age" of several centuries ago. But these cannot create an ice age, because they don't create enough long-lasting snow for reflecting away sunlight. The summers melt the snow. And there is less snow during such cool-downs, because cold air does not hold much moisture.

Ice Ages

Ice ages have been occurring at 100 thousand year intervals for the past million years. The general assumption is that the earth's orbit changes in cyclic ways to cause ice ages. Those cycles (called Milankovitch cycles) are too trivial and complex to be of much significance. When the earth tilts, it still gets the same amount of solar radiation, only the location changes. And why have the recent ice age cycles been occurring for only one million years?

The cause of recent ice age cycles is a water clock in the Pacific Ocean. It cycles about every 80 or 90 years. Shifting of tectonic plates created the present conditions. As oceans heat up and rise between ice ages, warm water from the Pacific Ocean flows over the Bering Strait and melts Arctic ice. The water flows out the Arctic into the Atlantic. It can stop the ocean conveyer, which used to be called the "Gulf Stream," in that area, which it did a few years ago causing some panic before restarting. After several years, the Pacific Ocean cools back down, and the Arctic freezes over again.

With each cycle, the oceans get warmer, as constantly occurs between ice ages. The sun's energy penetrates into oceans about 10 meters (30 ft), and it does not escape easily. So it accumulates between ice ages. Only an ice age can cool the oceans back down. As ice forms on land, the ocean level drops about 130 meters (400 ft). As the ice melts, cold water flows back into the oceans.

An ice age begins when warm Pacific Ocean water flows over the Bering Strait melting Arctic ice and warming the Arctic area to such an extent that a large amount of snow falls in northern areas. Warm water causes a lot of moisture to enter the air through evaporation. In the north, the result is a lot of snow. If the snow cannot all melt during the summer, it reflects away so much solar energy that a precipitous cool-down occurs causing the next ice age.

The Recent Short-Term Cycle of the Water Clock

During the eighties, the Pacific Ocean was getting so warm that it put a lot of moisture in the air and caused a lot of precipitation in the northern USA. The increased precipitation caused the corn belt to shift about a hundred miles further west allowing corn and soybeans to be grown where there were normally prairie grasslands. The winters were warmer and the summers cooler due to increased precipitation and cloud cover. This condition continued sporadically during the nineties and two thousands. These changes were attributed to carbon dioxide in the air by global warming alarmists. Several years ago, they were saying, if this heat-up continues, the Arctic ice could melt by the year 2050 and cause some sort of disaster. Over the next few years, most of the Arctic ice melted, as warm Pacific Ocean water flowed over the Bering Strait and melted the Arctic ice. There was a heavy accumulation of snow in northern Canada, but not enough to trigger the next ice age, as it melted during the summer. Alaska, of course, was warmed immensely, as the normal ice was replaced by warm Pacific Ocean water.

All this is attributed to global warming caused by carbon dioxide by global warming alarmists, while it is caused by endless cycles of a water clock. Arctic ice melted some time around 1900, as plans were made for a shipping route through the "Northwest Passage." It was navigated by Amundsen in 1903-1906. But ice soon closed it back up. Scientists do not claim that humans were causing global warming at that time.

Cool-Down and Drought

Heating of the Arctic by warm Pacific Ocean water causes a lot of heat loss from the planet due to ice thawing and remelting. The heat radiates into space at a greater rate than occurs when the Arctic is cold. For this reason, there is a cool-down of ocean temperatures that follows heating. This cool-down resulted in the drought of the thirties in the USA. The drought lasted about ten years. There appears to be a drought beginning again in the USA, as the Pacific Ocean has gotten colder, at least on the surface. If this cycle is similar to the last one, the drought will probably last ten years again.

(An El Nino occurred in 2015 heating the surface of the Pacific Ocean, as randomly and mysteriously occurs. The drought in California is caused by a high pressure mass locked over the California cost, and it is not attributed to greenhouse gases by climatologists.)

These 80-90 year cycles get more extreme each time due to solar energy accumulating in the oceans. The next ice age will be triggered when the Arctic gets so warm that more snow accumulates in northern areas than can melt during the summers. Notice, it is warming of Arctic ocean water that causes the ice age to begin, not some coldness transplanted from who knows where.

The short cycles appear to be quite variable. What is consistent is the amount of time required for oceans to heat between ice ages. There needs to be enough heat in the oceans to cause a lot of precipitation to occur in northern areas where snow accumulates.

A possible explanation for the very high precision in the ice age cycles of 100 thousand years could be that a hot mass circulates in the core of the earth getting close to the surface near the Pacific Ocean every 100 thousand years. If the hot mass is the iron core, it could explain why a "pole shift" occurs occasionally. It's a shift in the direction of the magnetic pole.

 

           
 
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