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Gary Novak
Saturation, Proof of Climate Science Fraud Fudge Factor for Settled Science
Crunching the Numbers Absorption Spectra Explanations Simple Words Contrivance Communication Corruption Alphabetical Page List And Summaries
The Cause of Ice Ages and Present Climate
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A Major Cool-Down began in 2008 Below: How False Starts Occur This is not an analysis of weather data; it is observations made on the ground. Weather data is close to worthless for evaluating large climate effects. First, thermometer measurements would be a joke, even if they were not contrived. (Thermometers are haphazardly affected by the extreme amount of heterogeneity in the atmosphere, which exists from micro-scale to macro-scale, though satellite measurements do a better job of integrating it.) And then, integrated complexities cannot be extracted from weather data, such as the presence of cirrus clouds in producing abnormal cooling. So weather and climate experts don't notice effects which are observed at ground level.
Missing heat cannot be located, April 15, 2010. A massive cool-down occurred in 2008 and continued through 2009. Snow has closed roads in California in June of 2009, and of course in Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota. Climatology is 98% about oceans, not atmosphere, contrary to the fakes who have been controlling science and the media. One major reason is that oceans have a thousand times as much heat capacity as the atmosphere. That's 100,000% as much heat at the same temperature. Another reason why climatology is about oceans is because oceans are heat regulators. Water absorbs and releases massive amounts of heat while changing state from water to vapor or from ice to water. When conditions are hot, oceans provide cooling. When conditions are cold, oceans provide warming. But global warming is not about temperature, it's about precipitation. When oceans heat up, they cause more water to evaporate from them and into the air, which gets carried around the globe and precipitates everywhere. Snow has been accumulating over 90% of Antarctica due to the increase in precipitation, which has totally stopped the rise in ocean levels. This is not good news. The oceans have been rising for the past 10,000 years since the last ice age. The end of that era means hard times for humans. During the recent "global warming," between 1978 and 1998, precipitation increased so much that the dry cow-country of the US Northern Plains became part of the corn belt. Farmers were raising corn and soybeans where cows used to graze on sparse grass. This was a boon for agriculture. But it ended in 1998, contrary to the fakes who claim that every recent event (including the plane crash in the Atlantic) is due to "climate change" which humans caused by putting carbon dioxide into the air. Satellite measurements show that the slight temperature increases near the surface of the earth ended in 1998 and dropped precipitously in 2008. But it never was about temperature, except for Alaska and various northern tundra, where warm Pacific ocean water was adding heat to a normally cold landscape. At about the time the detectable global warming ended, Arctic ice started to melt unexpected fast. Just a few years ago, the fakes were saying Arctic ice could be gone by 2050 or sooner. Then it almost totally disappeared over the next five years. They couldn't explain how carbon dioxide could do that much heating that fast, so they skipped over the point and continued with their CO2 doom. No one who should be called a scientist could assume that global warming melts Arctic ice the way it has been occurring. Nothing but warm ocean water could melt Arctic ice in a major way. First, the ice is 90% submerged. (There is no land under much of the Arctic ice; it's ice floating on water.) Then massive amounts of heat are required to change the state of water from ice to liquid. And then, the heat must flow upward; it cannot flow downward, which means Arctic ice does not melt from the top down, it melts from underneath. The physics of this is so simple, overwhelming and obvious that real scientists don't get it wrong. The obvious and unquestionable cause of Arctic ice melting in recent years was warm, Pacific, ocean water flowing over the Bering Strait and into the Arctic. It warmed up Alaska along the way and caused a lot of tundra to melt. It kept the northern US warm during the winters by reducing the amount of cold air that descends from the Arctic. After the warm, Pacific, ocean water melts Arctic ice, it flows into the Atlantic Ocean and sinks due to its colder temperature. During the sixties, scientists were worried that the increasing ocean level could cause Pacific ocean water to flow over the Bering Strait melting Arctic ice and triggering the next ice age. I'm not sure what the mechanism was supposed to be for causing an ice age; but 35 years later, warm Pacific ocean water flowed over the Bering Strait, caused Arctic ice to melt and triggered a massive cool-down of the northern one third of the globe. Did it trigger the next ice age? It's a more realistic question to study than whether CO2 is creating global warming. The first, and perhaps most important, point of science to consider is the so-called second law of thermodynamics. It says heat tends to dissipate, and there is nothing in the universe that can cause it to do otherwise. This means, you lose heat while ice is melting, and you lose heat while ice is reforming. You don't get back the heat that is lost. This law appears to be the reason why there was a massive heat loss over the northern part of the globe recently. Heat was lost while Arctic ice was melting, and heat was lost while the ice formed again. Apparently, the heat just dissipated into space. One of the most impossible questions to answer in science is why do the oceans do what they do. Why did the Arctic ice stop melting, and what is the Pacific Ocean doing now? Only the most indirect evidence provides any clues. It may have been that a change in ocean currents stopped the process of Arctic ice melting and triggered the cool-down. Everything about oceans changes in a rhythmic or cyclic manner. After an El Nino puts warm water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean, an El Nina puts cold water on the surface. No one knows why. The oceans are in rivers of motion and mountains of layers. This means there is so much heterogeneity and change in the oceans that humans don't have a clue as to what oceans are doing; and most of it they won't be able to predict for centuries. It wasn't until recently that a serious attempt was made by placing 3,000 diving buoys in the oceans to make measurements at various depths. The first results appeared in 2003. Generally, they showed oceans heating, but this is a somewhat rash conclusion in the mysteries of oceanography. Nature is the only real indication of what oceans are doing. When ocean surfaces warm, evaporation increases and slight warming is noticeable on some nearby land surfaces. How significant the massive heat loss over the Arctic will be is something only nature knows and humans have no ability to predict. Addendum: The impression created by these events is that the oceans have been accumulating heat over the past 10,000 years since the last ice age and have been releasing more of it lately. Solar energy could accumulate in the oceans over a long period of time. How heat is released by the oceans is extremely erratic and unpredictable due to varying ocean currents and layering. Update The north and west of USA get air from the Pacific Ocean, before it collides with Gulf air at about Sioux City, Iowa. The Pacific air has produced duck weather over the entire northern USA during May and June of 2009. It has not produced a lot of rain but a lot of fog, drizzle and overcast. This means the surface of the Pacific Ocean is still warm. So here's the cycle of events which occurred: A high temperature spike in 1998 apparently melted Arctic ice which was blocking the Bering Strait and allowed Pacific ocean water to flow into the Arctic and melt a lot of Arctic ice. For ten years, Pacific ocean water flowed into the Arctic area and melted ice. A lot of heat loss resulted and cooled the Arctic area resulting in ice blocking the Bering Strait again in 2008. Now, Pacific ocean water is no longer flowing into the Arctic area. This is allowing the surface of the Pacific Ocean to accumulate heat again. These cycles could go on for centuries before the next ice age begins. But on the other hand, the next ice age may have been triggered in 2008. A major fact that needs to be corrected about ice ages is that it is not cold temperatures that cause ice ages; it is warm ocean water that causes them. The oceans "boil away" (figuratively speaking) during an ice age dropping 400 feet and depositing the water as snow over land. The land gets cold due to snow reflecting way solar energy. Fakes in science keep saying that something cools the planet to create an ice age. Not so. Something heats the oceans to create an ice age. It could simply be solar energy that accumulates in the oceans that is the cause; but it is heat in the oceans, not some mysterious cooling force, that cause ice ages to begin and proceed. It appears at this time that the Pacific Ocean is back to where it was during the eighties and nineties—accumulating heat which shows up on the surface of the ocean and releases water vapor causing more precipitation over the northern USA and to some extent everywhere else also. Here's some data on this: Increasing Evidence for Cause of Ice Ages It's beginning to appear that the cause of ice ages is heat accumulating in the oceans. The heat keeps increasing for 10,000 years or more between ice ages. Solar energy would probably stabilize much sooner and stay near the surface, because warm water does not sink easily (Heat always rises.) So the heat apparently comes from within the earth, just as geothermal energy does. Coming from within the earth, it heats the oceans from the bottom up, which means the entire oceans accumulate heat. Then there appears to be an interaction with Arctic ice. Artic ice constantly melts and refreezes. It was melted a thousand years ago, when the Vikings lived on Greenland. Melting and thawing creates a massive heat loss over the Arctic. This occurred over the past five or ten years. Now the Arctic is extremely cold resulting in record cold everywhere in North America which is affected by Artic air. When the oceans get hot enough to keep putting much water vapor into the air, while Arctic cold causes it to form snow, the accumulation of snow reflects away solar energy triggering the next ice age. Whether this latest cool-down of the Arctic triggered the next ice age or is just another cycle leading up to it is yet to be determined. Update Summer came and went with no warm-up in northern USA. A clearer picture is emerging, and it's scary. The absence of warming appears to result from sunlight reflecting off clouds. Such cooling normally happens on cloudy, drizzling days. But they are supposed to be few. In between the cloudy days, little solar heating has been occurring. Why? There appears to be a thin layer of cirrus clouds reflecting away sunlight between the heavy-overcast days. Almost never is the sky clear enough to get all of the sunshine through. So why won't the skies clear? It is said that there is a volcano in eastern Siberia putting sulfur dioxide into the air. It is known that sulfur dioxide causes precipitation and cool-down of the atmosphere. But would a trivial volcano create such a massive cool-down for two years in a row? The consequence is unprecedented in recent history. The Mt. Pinatubo volcano was large, and it created a small amount of cool-down, which only the scientists noticed. If the result is sulfur dioxide from a volcano, then recovery will probably occur in the near future. If not, then this is the real thing—the beginning of the next ice age. It means an ice age is not just triggered from snow accumulating and reflecting away sunshine; it is triggered from relentless overcast which does not let sunshine through. There is now an officially designated El Nino in the Pacific Ocean which can account for the overcast. But El Ninos have been quite regular in recent years, and they have not produce this much cold before. This time, the El Nino is combined with a massive cool-down of Arctic air. This anomaly might clear up in a year or two and renormalize. But even if it does, it is an unprecedented event. Being unprecedented, it might not clear up. It is doing exactly what will occur when the next ice age begins—boiling water out of the oceans which reflects away sunlight through snow or cloud cover causing a massive cool-down. Update By mid August, 2009, the Northern USA became moderately hot again (low 90s); and warm ocean water apparently re-appeared in the Arctic. Perhaps conditions are returning to two years ago. Update It's getting scarier all the time. Cold, wet weather is back in October. In part, it's due to relentless overcast reflecting away sunshine. More basically, cold air from the north keeps breaking all records for cold in northern USA. Regardless of how hot it is in India or across the globe, a major cool-down occurred around the Arctic. There is little doubt how the cycles are occurring. First, warm Pacific Ocean water flows over the Bering Strait and heats the Arctic causing a lot of Arctic ice to melt. The Pacific Ocean cools as heat flows northward. Then it stops; the Arctic cools back down; and the Pacific Ocean warms back up. One of the consequences is a large amount of heat lost into space from the Arctic. This heat loss is resulting in a net cool-down of the northern part of the globe. Then when the Pacific Ocean warms back up, it sends humid air into the northern USA, which combines with cold air from the north creating a lot of overcast skies with slight increases in precipitation. This cycle looks like it is unbreakable, while the heat loss over the Arctic is irretrievable. The heat lost due to reflection of sunshine from the overcast skies is also irretrievable. If the result does not trigger the next ice age, humans will be lucky. Update National Weather Service says this winter storm is of "historic proportions." It's looking more and more like the beginning of the next ice age to me. What's happening is that a lot of moist air is coming off the warm, northern, Pacific Ocean and combining with a lot of cold air from the arctic. Even if India is frying, there's a lot of heat being lost into space in this part of the world. And I don't believe one word of the temperature claims coming from the fake science laboratories. The above sequence looks like a standard routine which is played over and over as the next ice age moves forward with false starts. The sequence is this: For 20 years during the eighties and nineties, the surface of the Pacific Ocean heated creating increased precipitation over the U.S. and melting ice over the Bering Strait causing warm water to flow into the Arctic and melt Arctic ice. Then the surface of the Pacific Ocean went cold, perhaps because the warm water was used up in the process of melting Arctic ice. By 2010 the Arctic was freezing back over. Back to back La Ninas created cold, dry air in 2012, which indicates that the surface of the Pacific Ocean became colder. Something similar occurred a century ago. Arctic Ice melted opening the Arctic area to ships. Then dry, cold conditions developed resulting in a major drought in the Midwest of the U.S. during the thirties. This sequence indicates that there is not enough warm water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean to start an ice age at this time. It could be two centuries or more before the Pacific Ocean gets that warm. Related: New Study Says Ice Age Could Occur Any Time - August 24, 2009 0.74°C Temperature Drop
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